ESPN predicts the record of each Western Conference team in the new season: Warriors 2nd, Rockets 5th, Lakers 6th, Trail Blazers 12th

(Originally published on October 8, the author is Kevin Pelton of the ESPN website. The content of the article does not represent the translator’s opinion)

Which NBA teams may perform better or worse than expected in the new season? My data prediction model helps answer this question.

Last season, my data prediction model was highly optimistic about the Cavaliers (predicted to be second in the Eastern Conference and actually first in the Eastern Conference) and the Thunder (predicted to be first in the league and actually first in the league), and reasonably predicted that the Nets and Trail Blazers would be more competitive than expected, while predicting the rankings of the 76ers and Suns to be lower than the consensus (while the actual record was still worse than predicted, both teams completely missed the play-offs).

When predicting the team's record, I first conduct an analysis based on the player's personal rating. For each team, I will also predict the number of players played based on injury absence data and current absences over the past three years, and then subjectively speculate on the specific playing time of the players. The final result is the expected number of wins assuming the team remains averagely healthy, which is comparable to ESPN BET's season win odds for each team. In addition to ranking the teams from 1st to 15th in each conference, I also tried to explain why my record predictions are higher or lower than these handicaps.

Now let us start the analysis, starting with the defending champion. Next, we will explore which teams may suddenly emerge in the Eastern Conference with an open competitive landscape, and which teams may fall significantly in the rankings in the new season.

No. 1: Oklahoma City Thunder

Predicted wins: 59.2

ESPN BET odds of wins: 62.5

The reason why the prediction is lower than the odds: The Thunder's odds of 62.5 wins are indeed astonishingly high. This is actually the highest handicap since the 2017-18 champion Warriors (whose odds were 67.5 wins and ended up with 58 wins). If there is a team that can reach this standard, it is certainly the Thunder. The Thunder's predicted record in my model for the new season is the highest of any team since the Warriors in the 2017-18 season.

No. 2: Golden State Warriors

Predicted wins: 56.1

ESPN BET odds: 46.5

Reasons for predictions above the odds: The Warriors may be the most surprising record prediction of all teams, with their predicted value being nearly four wins higher than any other team except the Thunder. The Warriors are about to usher in a full season for superstar Butler (the Warriors' winning rate was as high as 76.7% when Butler played last season, equivalent to 63 wins in the season). At the same time, the team has 11 players above the league average, tied with the Thunder for the most in the league.

No. 3: Denver Nuggets

Predicted wins: 52.2

ESPN BET odds of wins: 53.5

Reason for prediction lower than the odds: The market's general expectations for the Nuggets are not very different from the model predictions. Either way, they are ranked third in the Western Conference. The reason for the slightly higher handicap may be that the market is optimistic that the new players-Cameron Johnson, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Valanciunas will perform better when paired with three-time MVP Jokic.

No. 4: Los Angeles Clippers

Predicted wins: 49.7

ESPN BET odds of wins: 47.5

Reason for forecasting higher than the odds: Optimistic estimates of Leonard's health are a key factor. The model predicts that he will play 66 games in the new season, which is close to his 68 games in the 2023-24 season and exceeds the number of games he played in other seasons while playing for the Clippers. Another advantage of the Clippers is that all players on the team who are expected to play more than 200 minutes have a plus-minus value of no less than -0.5 per 100 possessions.

No. 5: Houston Rockets

Predicted wins: 46.9

ESPN BET odds of wins: 53.5

Reason for prediction lower than the odds: Long before VanVleet suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament on September 22, the model had predicted that the Rockets' record would be lower than the odds. On the other hand, since being traded to the Suns at the 2023 trade deadline, Durant has never contributed to the team's wins to the level his underlying numbers suggest, and VanVleet's injury has only exacerbated this disparity. Although the Rockets' current handicap is only one win lower than the initial value, as I pointed out in the injury analysis, the Rockets' predicted wins have dropped by nearly 4 games after losing this solid point guard.

No. 6: Los Angeles Lakers

Predicted wins: 45.8

ESPN BET odds of wins: 48.5

The reason why the prediction is lower than the odds: This is the norm for the Lakers, whose odds benefit from the team's high popularity (especially in Las Vegas). Since the 2013-14 season, the Lakers' final win total has averaged 5.7 games below the handicap, the largest gap of any team. If Doncic performs at an MVP level in his first full season after joining, the Lakers are indeed expected to meet handicap expectations. However, the team's depth problem is prominent, with only four players projected to be above the league average. The other teams in the league with fewer than five such players (Nets, Jazz, Wizards) are all projected to be in the lottery.

No. 7: Memphis Grizzlies

Predicted wins: 44.6

ESPN BET odds of wins: 40.5

Reason for forecasting higher than odds: In terms of net points, the team ranked third in the Western Conference last season, second only to the two conference finals teams, and this indicator is more predictive of future performance.. Even with the loss of starting guard Bane (to the Magic), the data model still shows the Grizzlies have a reasonable chance of avoiding the play-in round. However, the team needs to pay careful attention to Morant's situation. He sprained his left ankle in previous training and his return date is currently undetermined.

No. 8: Minnesota Timberwolves

Predicted wins: 43.7

ESPN Number of wins in BET odds: 49.5

The reason why the prediction is lower than the odds: The Timberwolves were an important mistake in my prediction model last season. They actually won 49 games but the predicted value was only 42.7 wins. Part of the reason is that the Timberwolves' outside players have maintained good health. Alexander-Walker's departure means a need for young guards to fill holes in the rotation, and Terrance Shannon, the most likely candidate, underperforms in the model's projections. However, after reaching the conference finals two years in a row, Timberwolves fans could be forgiven for thinking the team is undervalued.

No. 9: Dallas Mavericks

Predicted wins: 43.6

ESPN Number of wins in BET odds: 40.5

Reason for prediction higher than odds: Although there are doubts about the compatibility of the Mavericks players, the team does have eight players above the league average (including Irving, who injured his knee and has an undetermined return date), and has sufficient talent reserves. Before Irving returns, the Mavericks rely on Russell to stabilize the point guard position, but due to Irving's injury and Doncic's trade, this lineup has not yet received enough recognition.

No. 10: Sacramento Kings

Predicted wins: 43.5

ESPN Number of wins in BET odds: 34.5

The reason why the prediction is higher than the odds: Similar to the Mavericks, the Kings' actual talent level seems to exceed public opinion. It should be noted that they achieved 40 wins with a positive net rating last season. Although the team's winning percentage dropped when LaVine played after the Fox trade, the addition of Schroeder upgraded the point guard position. The Kings' ceiling may not be high, but they are definitely not as far away from contention as the odds suggest.

No. 11: San Antonio Spurs

Predicted wins: 40.1

ESPN Number of wins in BET odds: 44.5

Reason for prediction lower than odds: I understand the market’s bets on Bunyama’s ranking among the top five in the league in the new season. Although the model predictions are relatively conservative, there are precedents for similar breakthroughs in the third year of other supernovas. But there are concerns about the rest of the lineup: No. 2 pick Dylan Harper has limited contributions in the new season, and Stephen Castle's advanced numbers in his first year are not consistent with his reputation as the best rookie.

No. 12: Portland Trail Blazers

Predicted wins: 35.8

ESPN BET odds of wins: 33.5

The reason why the prediction is higher than the odds: The Trail Blazers won 36 games last season, and by exchanging Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday, the data model shows that their strength has improved. The market was rightly skeptical of the second half of his 23-18 season, largely due to opponents' sluggish three-point shooting percentage (34%, second-worst in the league), which is often unsustainable. But for teams aiming to compete for a play-off spot, the current handicap seems to be over-corrected.

No. 13: Phoenix Suns

Predicted wins: 34.7

ESPN BET odds of wins: 31.5

Reason for prediction higher than the odds: I understand the logic of the market. The Suns lost Durant after 36 wins last season. But the team may rebound after falling short of expectations last season, and Durant may be overvalued at this stage. Also worth noting: With their first-round pick so irrelevant, the Suns lack the incentive to mess up late in the season.

No. 14: New Orleans Pelicans

Predicted wins: 32.6

ESPN BET odds of wins: 30.5

The reason why the prediction is higher than the odds: For a team with multiple talented players, this odds is obviously low. The Pelicans ranked among the top five in the league in missed games due to injuries last season, and their health should improve in the new season, although Dejounte Murray will miss most of the season with a torn Achilles tendon. Similar to the Suns, the Pelicans cannot benefit from the draft pick (it was sent to the Hawks on draft night).

No. 15: Utah Jazz

Predicted wins: 20.2

ESPN BET odds: 18.5

Why the prediction is higher: Teams with such low odds often exceed expectations, as evidenced by two of the bottom three teams last season. With an above-average starting tandem of Kessler and Markkanen, the Jazz can offset the problems posed by a young backcourt.

Original text: Kevin Pelton

Compiled by: Li Taibai